On January 30, 2017, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the Lao People's Democratic Republic.
Real GDP growth is expected to moderate from 7.5 percent in 2015 to 7 percent in 2016. Domestic activity has slowed following a less favorable external environment, and credit growth has also moderated from a high level. Inflation is expected to remain low and stable at around 2 percent at end-2016, aided by a strengthening kip exchange rate. The current account deficit is expected to remain high at 17 percent of GDP in 2016 but has narrowed from 20 percent of GDP in 2014.
The economy is exposed to external shocks, notably a further regional growth slowdown and a deterioration in terms-of-trade and capital inflows. Financial risks could also present risk to macroeconomic stability, particularly the growing foreign currency debt financed by foreign borrowing, and the existence of balance sheet currency mismatches in the private non-bank sector.
Executive Directors commended the authorities for their strong macroeconomic performance and progress on poverty reduction despite economic challenges. Directors noted, however, that there are significant vulnerabilities in the external, fiscal, and financial sectors, and that risks to the outlook could materialize from a regional growth slowdown, tightening in global monetary conditions, and capital flow volatility. Against this background, Directors emphasized the need for resuming fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary conditions with gradually increased exchange rate flexibility over the medium-term, strengthened financial sector supervision, and reforms to support economic diversification and private sector development.
Press-release at the official IMF web-site