IMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation with India
On July 18, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with India.
Stability-oriented macroeconomic policies and progress on structural reforms continue to bear fruit. Following disruptions related to the November 2016 currency exchange initiative and the July 2017 goods and service tax (GST) rollout, growth slowed to 6.7 percent in FY2017/18, but a recovery is underway led by an investment pickup.
Headline inflation averaged 3.6 percent in FY2017/18, a 17-year low, reflecting low food prices on a return to normal monsoon rainfall, agriculture sector reforms, subdued domestic demand, and currency appreciation. With demand recovering and rising oil prices, medium-term headline inflation has risen to 4.9 percent in May 2018, above the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s headline inflation target band.
The near-term macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable. Growth is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 percent in FY2019/20, on strengthening investment and robust private consumption. Headline inflation is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in FY2018/19, as demand conditions tighten, along with the recent depreciation of the rupee and higher oil prices.
Economic risks are tilted to the downside. On the external side, risks include a further increase in international oil prices, tighter global financial conditions, a retreat from cross-border integration including spillover risks from a global trade conflict, and rising regional geopolitical tensions. Domestic risks pertain to tax revenue shortfalls related to continued GST implementation issues and delays in addressing the twin balance sheet problems and other structural reforms.
Press-release at the IMF official web-site