New article by Lowy Institute for International Policy assesses the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) influence on the global GDP growth and China`s vision of this initiative

The authors take into consideration an econometric assessment of the TPP’s impact by the Peterson Institute in Washington. According to the research, the TPP by itself has modest benefits, but if all the Asian countries worked towards TPP-style rules and eventually joined up in an over-arching, all-inclusive Asia/Pacific framework, the benefit would be very much greater.
The Peterson Institute authors estimate that world income would rise by USD295 billion per year on the TPP track, and by USD1.9 trillion if the Asian/Pacific countries ultimately combine to achieve region-wide free trade. To put this in more perspective, the world gains about 0.3 % of GDP through implementing the TPP, but an inclusive pan-Asia/Pacific agreement would raise incomes by nearly 2%.


The authors emphasize that the problem here is that there is very little enthusiasm among key players for enlarging the TPP. South Korea might join on the basis of its recent bilateral trade deal with Canada. Indonesia might enter into negotiations, but has big domestic hurdles in terms of both opinion and existing policy. More importantly, the big non-starter — China — is neither eager to pursue membership nor welcome if it does.
The TPP draft contains other provisions that will make China feel unwelcome. It requires each TPP member to 'foster an exchange rate system that reflects underlying economic fundamentals,' 'avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments' and 'refrain from competitive devaluation.' These provisions obviously hurt China`s interests.
Full text at the Lowy Institute web-site